Entering 2023, the domestic butadiene market significantly higher, the market price increased by 22.71%, year-on-year growth of 44.76%, achieve a good start. Market participants believe that 2023 butadiene market tight pattern will continue, the market is worth looking forward to, at the same time the domestic butadiene market overall operation interval or will be slightly higher than 2022, the overall high operation.
High market volatility
Jin Lianchuang analyst Zhang Xiuping said that the industry had been pessimistic about the butadiene market in January due to the impact of the production of Shenghong Refining and chemical plant. However, the expected maintenance of butadiene plants in Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining and chemical plant in February and March has gradually raised the operating atmosphere of the market. In addition, Tianchen Qixiang and Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., LTD. ‘s acrylonitrile — butadiene — styrene copolymer (ABS) plant demand is gradually increasing. The market is exploring broadly.
Although the butadiene unit in Phase II of Zhejiang Petrochemical is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in mid-February, and the Zhenhai Refining and Chemical plant is also scheduled to be overhauled at the end of February, both Hainan Refining and Chemical Plant and petrochina Guangdong Petrochemical plant are scheduled to be put into operation in February. Under the comprehensive influence, the butadiene production is expected to be stable but not dynamic, and the market price is expected to remain high.
From the perspective of the release of bifienne capacity in 2023，there may be 1.04 million tons of new capacity released in the whole year, but the delay of some installations cannot be ruled out. At the same time, most of the new plants that were supposed to be put into operation at the end of last year have been delayed to the first half of this year. In addition to Shenghong Refining and Chemical, some butadiene plants such as Dongming Petrochemical are also expected to come into operation. In the first half of the year, affected by the concentrated release of new production capacity, butadiene supply will gradually dissipate, the market or show a high opening trend.
It is expected that a limited number of new butadiene devices will be put into production in the second half of the year, and it is expected that new downstream devices will be put into production. The demand increment will be greater than the supply increment, and the tight market supply situation will continue.
In addition, with the optimization and adjustment of the epidemic policy and the increased expectation of economic recovery, the overall domestic terminal demand in the second half of the year may be improved compared with the first half of the year, and the price support on the demand side is also enhanced compared with the first half of the year. The overall price focus of butadiene as a raw material is higher than the first half of the year.
The cost of raw materials is difficult to fall
As a pumpstone material, as a butadiene raw material, it was supported by the demand growth in 2022, and the production of stone brain oil continued to grow throughout the year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of stone brain oil in my country in 2022 was 54.78 million tons, an increase of 10.51%over the previous year; the import volume of stone brain oil was 9.26 million tons, and the consumption of stone brain oil watch was 63.99 million tons of consumption of 63.99 million tons. , Increased by 13.21%over the previous year.
In 2023, with the gradual fading of the epidemic, the policy is good, the economy has gradually recovered, the downstream operating rate of the petrochemical industry will increase, and the demand for upstream petroleum oil will increase. It is expected that this situation is expected to continue until the third quarter. By the fourth quarter, the petrochemical terminal entered the traditional consumption off -season, and the downstream construction decreased. The demand for petroleum and oil had risk of decline.
On the whole, when the refinery entered the centralized maintenance period in the second quarter, the supply of petroleum oil decreased and supported the market rebound. However, due to the slowdown of the global economic growth and insufficient demand, the rebound is limited, and the price may continue to be adjusted after the price is high. The third quarter was the peak of traditional travel. At this stage, crude oil prices gradually returned to a reasonable range. The profit of the cracking device improved, the market activity increased, and the cost of raw materials was smooth to the downstream. In the fourth quarter, the petrochemical market will enter the traditional consumption off -season, demand has declined, and the price of stone brain oil will fall again.
From the perspective of the refining industry, the accelerated construction of the Yulong Island Refining Project is planned to be put into production at the end of 2023. The second phase of Hainan Petrochemical Hainan Refining and Chemical, Zhenhai Refinery Phase I and CNOOC Petrochemical Plan were concentrated in 2023 to 2024. The growth of chemical light oil resources is undoubtedly beneficial for the oil market, so it supports downstream of downstream including butadiene in terms of cost.
Increased downstream demand
Entering 2023, the influence of the favorable policies such as the purchase tax of butadiene terminals was slightly improved, and the upstream rubber industry was actively prepared. At the same time, the continuous optimization of the national epidemic prevention measures also brought some benefits to the rubber market. Increasing downstream demand during the Spring Festival holiday, and the emerging downstream downstream of butadiene, it is expected to flow into the market at the beginning of 2023, and the spot demand for butadiene will increase significantly.
From the perspective of the release of capacity in 2023, the capacity of butadiebenbenbenbenbenbenbenbal rubber has a low volume, which is only 40,000 tons/year; the new capsule capsule has 273,000 tons; the polypropylene and chunyrene -butadiene -lyzyrene convergence market The production capacity is 150,000 tons/year; ABS has added 444,900 tons/year, and the newly increased production capacity of Tinto glue is 50,000 tons/year; It is not difficult to see that the new device is constantly put into production, and the downstream demand is expected to increase significantly. If the above production capacity is released on time, it is undoubtedly a major benefit for the butadiene market.
In addition, as the current epidemic prevention policies continue to be optimized, the impact of epidemic factors on imports and exports will gradually weaken in the future. Looking forward to 2023, butadiene self-sufficiency rate will increase, import volume will continue to shrink trend, but the recovery of foreign demand will help butadiene export volume further increase. In order to better balance the domestic market supply and demand pattern, increasing export may become the goal of domestic butadiene production enterprises.
Post time: Feb-23-2023