Although the second half of 2022, energy chemicals and other commodities entered the correction phase, but Goldman Sachs analysts in the latest report still stressed that the fundamental factors that determine the rise of energy chemicals and other commodities have not changed, will still bring bright returns next year.
On Tuesday, Jeff Currie, the director of Goldman Sachs Commodity Research, and Samantha Dart, director of natural gas research, expects the measurement benchmark of large commodities such as chemical industry,That means the S&P GSCI Total Return Index could gain a further 43% in 2023 on the back of a 20% plus return this year.
(S&P Kospi Total Commodities Index, source: Investing)
Goldman Sachs expects that the market in the first quarter of 2023 may have some bumps in the context of economic slowdown, but the supply of oil and natural gas supply will continue to rise.
In addition to the seller’s research institution, capital is also using real gold and silver to express its long -term optimistic about commodities. According to data invested by Bridge Alternative, the top 15 colleges focusing on the commodity market this year, the size of the assets managed by 50%to $ 20.7 billion.
Goldman Sachs concluded that without sufficient capital to create rich production capacity, commodities will continue to fall into a state of long -term shortage, and the price will continue to rise and fluctuate even greater.
In terms of specific targets,Goldman Sachs expects crude oil, currently hovering around $80 per barrel, to rise to $105 by the end of 2023; and the Asian natural gas benchmark price can also rise from $ 33/million to $ 53.
In the near future, there have been signs of recovery in the capable market, and chemicals have become more upward.
On December 16, among 110 products monitoring of Zhuochuang Information,55 products increased in this cycle, accounting for 50.00%; 26 products held steady, accounting for 23.64%; 29 products fell, accounting for 26.36%.
From the perspective of specific products, PBT, polyester filament, and benhypenhydronic are obviously recovered.
PBT
Recently, PBT market prices have risen, and profits have rebounded. Since December, the early industry started low lead to the manufacturers of spot inventory tight, and in the raw material BDO pull up the operation, the terminal panic to take goods mentality increased, PBT market spot supply tight, the price rose slightly, the industry profit turned around.
PBT pure resin price trend chart in East China
POY
After the “Golden Nine Silver Ten”, the demand for polyester filaments has shrunk sharply. Manufacturers have continued to make profit promotion, and the focus of the transaction continues to move down. At the end of November, the focus of the Poy150D transaction was 6,700 yuan/ton. In December, as the terminal demand gradually recovered, and the major model of polyester filaments was large in cash flow, manufacturers were selling at low prices, and the report was raised one after another. The downstream users were worried that the cost of procurement in the later period was increased. The atmosphere of the polyester filament market has continued to rise. By mid -December, the Poy150D price was 7075 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.6%from the previous month.
PA
The domestic benhynhydr market has ended for nearly two months, and the market has ushered in an ultra -decline in rebound. Since entering this week, affected by the rebound of the benhypenichydr market, the profitability of the domestic benhypenhydrate industry has improved. Among them, the gross profit of the neighboring benhypenhydrate sample production is 132 yuan/ton, an increase of 568 yuan/ton from December 8, and the decline is 130.28%. The price of raw materials has fallen, but the bonalide market has stabilized and rebounded, and the industry has changed from losses. The gross profit of the sample of the pyrine is 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from December 8, and a drop of 26.92%. It is mainly because the price of the raw material industry has rebounded, while the market price of benic anhydride rose sharply, and the industry’s losses narrowed.
To be sure, there are some analysts who now think the impact of the recession has been underestimated. Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup, said just this week that a possible shift in the direction of commodities markets, followed by a possible global recession, would pose a material threat to the asset class.
It’s the eve of dawn, waiting for demand to bottom out, according to Youliao. In 2013, China’s demand was affected by the epidemic, while high inflation gradually suppressed overseas demand. Although the market expects the Fed rate hike pace will slow down, but the impact on the real economy will gradually emerge, leading to a further slowdown in demand growth. The loosening of China’s epidemic prevention policy has injected impetus to the recovery, but the initial peak of the infection may still pose short-term obstacles. The recovery in China may start in the second quarter.
Post time: Dec-22-2022