Recently, from crude oil, futures to raw materials, even the sky -high freight, which has been crazy for nearly three years, also told traders that we have worshiped. There are constant news that the world has begun to enter the price war. Will the chemical market be good this year?
Decreasing 30%！Freight below pre-epidemic level!
The Shanghai Container Freight Rate Index (SCFI) fell significantly. Data showed that the latest index dropped 11.73 points to 995.16, officially falling below the 1,000 mark and returning to the level before the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019. The freight rate of the Western American line and the European line has been lower than the cost price, and the eastern American line is also struggling around the cost price, with a decline of between 1% and 13%!
From the difficulty of obtaining a box in 2021 to the ubiquity of empty boxes, the transportation of many ports at home and abroad has gradually declined, facing the pressure of “empty container accumulation”.
Conditions of each port:
South China ports such as Nansha Port, Shenzhen Yantian Port and Shenzhen Shekou Port are all facing the pressure of empty container stacking. Among them, Yantian Port has 6-7 layers of empty container stacking, which is about to break the largest amount of empty container stacking in the port in 29 years.
Shanghai Port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port is also in the situation of high empty container accumulation.
The ports of Los Angeles, New York and Houston all have high levels of empty containers, and the terminals of New York and Houston are increasing the area for placing empty containers.
The 2022 sea transportation is short of 7 million TEU containers, while the demand has been reduced since October 2022, and the air box is dropped. At present, it is estimated that more than 6 million TEUs have excess containers. Because there is no order, a large number of trucks have stopped in the domestic pier, and the upstream and downstream logistics companies also say that performance has decreased by 20%year -on -year! In January 2023, the collection company reduced the 27%capacity of the Asia -Europe line. Among the total 690 scheduled voyages of the main trading routes of the main trade routes across the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and Asia, and the Mediterranean Sea, in the 7th week (February 13th (February 13th From the 19th), 82 voyages were canceled from 5 weeks (March 13th to 19th), and the cancellation rate accounted for 12%.
In addition, according to data from the General Administration of Customs: In November 2022, my country’s exports to the United States plummeted by 25.4%. Behind this fierce decline is that manufacturing orders from the United States have fallen by 40%! U.S. orders return and other countries’ order transfer, excess capacity is continuing to increase.
Fall 150,000 yuan!Demand cooling, raw materials all slide!
▶ Lithium carbonate:
Lithium carbonate market last year all the way high,and even the price rose to 600,000 yuan/ton. Now it has also begun to “go downhill”. Since last Decembe,the price of lithium carbonate has begun to fall all the way. so far has fallen from 582000 yuan/ton to 429700 yuan/ton near, down more than 152000 yuan, down 26%.
Lithium carbonate domestic mixed price 2022-11-22-2023-02-20
Grade: Industrial grade
Some insiders said that after the return of the downstream customers stocking enthusiasm is not high, the order volume has not improved, resulting in intermediate traders in order to withdraw funds can only reduce the price of inventory, lithium carbonate market decline again and again, the current downstream customers are mainly to consume inventory.
▶ PC：
PC domestic mixed price 2022-11-22-2023-02-20
Top grade, 99.9% content
Since the Spring Festival, the domestic PC industry construction and production has been rising, but since February, the PC market has been falling, last week the factory price of domestic PC has also been lowered, ranging from 300 to 400 yuan, downstream demand can not keep up, the market atmosphere is bleak is the main reason
▶N-Butanol:
N-butanol Shandong production price 2022-11-22-2023-02-20 excellent products
N-butanol market decline began to appear since the end of January, its price since the end of December has dropped 1000 yuan/ton, the main reason is that the downstream demand is insufficient, manufacturers high inventory, sales pressure under the price promotion. However, Guanghua Jun believes that n-butanol continues to yield substantial profits, downstream users to make up for orders on a bargain, if the deal is better, the price is still expected to appear a correction.
De-sinification of supply chains
Foreign trade exports are facing challenges
The downstream textile industry is also suffering. China’s textile and garment exports grew 2.6% in dollar terms in 2022, but this was mainly due to the high growth rate in the first half of the year, with most of the orders received before the 2022 Spring Festival. Exports then fell in the second half of the year due to a lack of orders, and in the fourth quarter in particular recorded double-digit declines for all three months.
Entering 2023, the situation is halfway. What is liked to adjust the epidemic prevention policy, the domestic market liberalization, the support of the local government, and the textile and apparel companies have more opportunities. What is worried is that the international environment is complex and the demand for foreign consumption is still sluggish. It is expected that foreign trade orders will not improve.
The international market demand in 2023 continued to weaken and had a negative impact on my country’s exports. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast, the growth rate of US GDP (GDP in China) in 2023 will be only 1.4%(2.0%in 2022), and the GDP growth rate of the euro zone will be only 0.7%(3.5%in 2022.5%in 2022 ), And these two regions are the largest export markets for our textile and apparel products.
Fan Lei, chief analyst of the National Federation of Macro, said that the increasing unstable external environment is increasing, and the United States is still promoting the supply chain to Sinicization. This is also a challenge facing exports this year. In November 2022, the US imports of Chinese clothing fell almost half year -on -year, a decrease of 47%, and the import volume fell by 38%year -on -year. From January to November 2022, China accounted for the market share of US clothing imports from 24.1%a year ago to 22%.
Guosheng Securities issued a research report pointed out that the current European and American clothing industry inventory is at a high level, and the rhythm of the brand owner is conservative. According to data from the US Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau, US clothing wholesalers and retail inventory continued to rise in the third quarter of 2021. In September 2022, the wholesale inventory / retailer inventory increased by 68.3% / 24.1% year -on -year, which was significantly exceeded in the same period before the pandemic.
Global Trade War Upgrade
China and the United States “grabbing orders” open?
The capacity has decreased and costs have fallen sharply, and some domestic companies have already started a round of holidays for nearly half a year. It can be seen that the situation of poor demand and weak markets is obvious. Installing war, shortage of resources, and global trade upgrades, countries are seizing the market after the epidemic to boost the country’s economy.
Among them, the United States has also increased investment in Europe while accelerating the reconstruction of the country’s manufacturing industry. According to relevant data, the US investment in the United States in the first half of 2022 was US $ 73.974 billion, while my country’s investment in the United States was only 148 million Dollar. These data show that the United States wants to build a European and American supply chain, which also shows that the global supply chain is changing, and Sino -US trade may rise to a “grabbing order” dispute.
In the future, there are still great fluctuations in the chemical industry. Some people in the industry say that external needs have influenced internal supply. The survival of domestic enterprises will face the first severe survival test after the epidemic.
Post time: Mar-01-2023