In 2022, under the background of the high price of raw coal prices and the continued growth of domestic production capacity in the domestic methanol market, it has gone through a round of “W” vibration trend with a maximum amplitude of over 36%. Looking forward to 2023, industry insiders believe that this year’s methanol market will still keep up with the macro situation and industry cycle trend. With the adjustment of supply and demand relationships and the adjustment of raw materials costs, it is expected that the production demand will grow simultaneously, the market will be stable and stable. It also shows the characteristics of slowing production capacity growth, changes in consumer structure, and multiple fluctuations in the market. At the same time, the impact of imported supply on the domestic market may be mainly reflected in the second half of the year.
The growth rate of capacity slows down
According to statistics from Henan Chemical Network, in 2022, my country’s methanol production capacity was 5.545 million tons, and the global new methanol production capacity was concentrated in China. As of the end of 2022, my country’s total methanol production capacity was about 113.06 million tons, accounting for 59%of the global total production capacity, and the effective production capacity was about 100 million tons, an increase of 5.7% year -on -year.
Han Hongwei, vice president of Henan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, said that in 2023, my country’s methanol production capacity continues to grow, but the growth rate will slow down. In 2023, my country’s new methanol capacity may be about 4.9 million tons. At that time, the total domestic methanol production capacity will reach 118 million tons, a year -on -year increase of 4.4%. At present, the newly -produced coal -to -methanol device is significantly reduced, mainly due to the promotion of the “double carbon” target and the high investment cost of coal chemical projects. Whether the new capacity can be effectively converted into actual production capacity in the future also needs to pay attention to the policy guidance of the “Fourteenth Five -Year Plan” planning in the direction of the new coal chemical industry, as well as changes in environmental protection and coal policies.
According to market front -line information feedback, as of January 29, the mainstream trading price of domestic methanol has risen to 2,600 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the port price even rose to 2,800 yuan, the monthly increase reached 13%. “The impact of the launch of new capacity on the market may be reflected in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the rebound at the bottom of the methanol price at the beginning of the year is expected to continue.” Han Hongwei said.
Consumption structure changes
The person in charge of the Zhongyuan Futures Methanol project said that due to the prevention and control of the epidemic and the weakening of the macroeconomic weakened, the future consumption structure of methanol will also change. Among them, the development speed of coal -to -olefins with a consumption of about 55%may slow down, and the application of traditional downstream industries is expected to grow again.
Cui Huajie, the person in charge of Henan Ruiyuanxin’s Chemical Management, said that the needs of olefins have become weak since 2022, and although the raw methanol market has been adjusted by shocks, it remains relatively high. Under high costs, coal -to -olefin maintains a loss of losses throughout the year. Affected by this, the development of coal -to -olefin showed signs of slowing down. With the maximum refining and chemical integrated project of the domestic single process in 2022 -Shenghong refining and comprehensive production, the Slipon methanol olefin (MTO) project of methanol will be 2.4 million tons in theory. The actual demand growth rate of olefins on methanol will further slow down.
According to a manager of Henan Energy Group, in the traditional downstream aspect of methanol, a large number of acetic acid projects will be launched from 2020 to 2021 under the attract of high profits, and the acetic acid production capacity has maintained an annual increase of 1 million tons in the past two years. In 2023, 1.2 million tons of acetic acid is expected to be added, followed by 260,000 tons of methane chloride, 180,000 tons of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and 550,000 tons of N, n-dimethylformamide (DMF). As a whole, the demand growth of traditional downstream methanol industry has an increasing trend, and the domestic methanol consumption pattern again presents a diversified development trend, and the consumption structure may change. However, the production plans of these new capacity in traditional downstream industries are mostly concentrated in the second half or the end of the year, which will have limited support for the methanol market in 2023.
Market shocks are inevitable
According to the current supply and demand structure, Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator, said that domestic methanol production capacity has already experienced a certain degree of overcapacity, but due to the high cost state of methanol raw materials may continue to be affected, whether the new methanol production capacity can be planned in 2023 according to the plan according to the plan The production is still to be observed, and the production is also concentrated in the second half of the year, which will be favorable for the formation of the methanol market in the first half of 2023.
From the perspective of the production process of new overseas methanol devices, the production capacity is concentrated in the second half of the year. The pressure of importing supply may be obvious in the second half of the year. If the low -cost importing supply increases, the domestic methanol market will still face the impact of imported products in the second half of the year.
In addition, in 2023, the traditional downstream industry of methanol and emerging industries are planned to put into production of new units, among which the new capacity of MTO is mainly integrated production, methanol clean fuel has an incremental market in the field of new energy, methanol demand is expected to increase, but the growth rate may continue to slow down. The domestic methanol market as a whole is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will rise first and then stabilize in 2023, and the possibility of adjustment in the second half of the year cannot be ruled out. However, due to the high cost of raw coal and natural gas, it is difficult to improve the methanol market in the short term, and the overall shock is inevitable.
Industry insiders said that the average annual growth rate of methanol production capacity in the next five years is expected to be in the flat range of 3% to 4%. At the same time, with the industrial integration and technological upgrading, more than one million tons of methanol to olefin integration device is still the mainstream, green carbon and other emerging processes will be a supplement. Methanol to aromatics and methanol to gasoline will also get new development opportunities with the expansion of the industrial scale, but the self-supporting integrated device is still the mainstream development trend, the pricing power will be in the hands of large leading enterprises, and the phenomenon of large fluctuations in the methanol market is expected to be improved.
Post time: Feb-08-2023