Since December 2022, the MIBK market has continued to rise. As of the end of December 2022, the price of MIBK was 13,600 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of 2,500 yuan from early November, and the profit space rose to nearly 3,900 yuan. Regarding the market outlook, the industry insiders said that the supply of supply is still there, and the demand has a certain benefit. The MIBK high -level welcoming the New Year has become a foregone conclusion.
The supply continues to tighten
Zhang Qian, an analyst of Longzhong Information, introduced that the MIBK market in 2022 can be described as a wave of twists and turns. The overall price is significantly reduced compared with 2021. The low operation time is long, and the market investment atmosphere is faint.
In 2022, the MIBK market opened for up to half a year after reaching 139,000 yuan in March, and fell to 9,450 yuan in early September. After that, affected by factors such as the price of the manufacturer and the rapid tightening of the supply surface, the MIBK price bottomed out, and the market has actively pushed up. By the end of December 2022, the price of MIBK of 13,600 yuan is still 10,000 yuan less than the high point in 2021.
Data show that in 2022, the spot price of the MIBK market is at a low level in the past 5 years. The average annual price is around 119,000 yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 42%, and the lowest price and highest point amplitude of the year reached 47%.
It is understood that in the fourth quarter of 2022, the MIBK enterprise maintenance concentration, Jilin Petrochemical, Ningbo Zhenyang and Dong Yimei were parking.
At present, the MIBK supply side is still tight, the industry operating rate is maintained at 73%, the spot resources are insufficient, the presence of the holder is at a high level, and there is still an on -site intention. , Market rising operations or restrictions.
From the perspective of the market, at the end of 2022, the 15,000 tons/year MIBK device in Zhejiang Zhenyang restarted, but the spot supply is still tight. At the same time, Zhenjiang Li Changrong MIBK device reported parking news. If the news is true, MIBK may still rise; if the capacity of the device has not changed, it is expected that the MIBK market is stable.
Profit space expansion
Judging from the current market operation, due to the decline in the price of the raw materials, the cost is softer, and the profitability of MIBK companies has improved.
Since October 2022, the price of acetone in East China is relatively high during the year. Among them, the price of East November 24 rose to 6,200 yuan on November 24, the highest price in the fourth quarter, and the highest point of the year of 6,400 yuan in early March. Kim Lianchuang analyst Bian Huihui introduced that one of the important factors that caused this upsurge was the favorable supply. For example, the maintenance of phenolone devices of Changshu Changchun Chemical and Ningbo Tahua has led to a decrease in domestic phenolone output. In addition, the demand for the lower reaches of the acetone is heating, and the increase in the increase of the pilot of the littone has accelerated, resulting in the continued decrease in the inventory of the port.
However, the end of 2022, the tension of the acetone spot was relieved. Market sources said that the price of acetone market in East China has fallen by 550 yuan compared with the November high. The zeragone quotes in the raw material have been softened, which enlarged MIBK’s profit margin, rising 1900 yuan over early November 2022, and an increase of nearly 3,000 yuan from the earnings space in early September.
From the perspective of the market market, as the two new acetone devices are put into operation at the end of December 2022, the market watching emotions will increase. It is expected that the acetone market will continue to be weak, and the MIBK profit space will be further expanded.
The demand is still good
Although the overall adjustment of the MIBK downstream rubber assistant market as a whole is in a weak adjustment state, due to the rich production profit, the operating rate has continued to increase expectations, and the possibility of a small increase in the purchase of raw materials MIBK may increase.
Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Co., Ltd., said that due to the lower price of aniline, the price of the agent 4020 in 2022 also showed a decline in the overall price, but the average annual value of the product profit is still at a historical high.
Judging from the market trend in recent years, the overall profit of anti -agent 4020 has declined. The profit space is around 105,000 yuan.
The rich level of profit has improved the enthusiasm of the enterprise. At present, the production capacity of the main agent’s main enterprises has recovered, and the start of construction has improved slightly, which is good for the market market of the MIBK market.
At the same time, the export of agent anti -agent is strong. According to Wang Chunming, as the world’s largest anti -agent producer and supplier, the export volume of Chinese anti -agent accounts for more than 50%of the total domestic output. In 2021, the export volume of Chinese anti -agent was 271,400 tons, which was the highest level in history. It was mainly due to the background of the post -epidemic era, the pace of global economic recovery accelerated, especially overseas demand increased significantly, and the retaliated growth of anti -agent exports increased.
In addition, the demand for downstream tire companies is also slowly recovering. At present, the tire maintenance device has planned to gradually resume work, and at the same time, the workers have returned to work one after another to support the start of the company. The current operating rate of tire enterprises is about 63%, and some companies are close to full production, and the demand for tire companies is recovering slowly.
Regarding the market outlook, people such as Wang Chunming believe that although the overall price of antioxidant downward, but antioxidant production enterprises profit, operating rate has continued to increase expectations for raw material procurement or a small increase in the possibility, which injected vitality into the MIBK market.
Post time: Jan-07-2023