Following the long -sized cow market in 2021, the rising trend continued until 2022. It was in a unilateral ride and a high stability state for 11 months. Near the end of 2022, the trend of the polysilicon market appeared at a turning point, and eventually ended at a 37.31%increase.
Continuously rising unilaterally for 11 months
The polysilicon market in 2022 rose 67.61%in the first 11 months. Looking back at the market trend of the year, it can be roughly divided into three stages. In the first eight months, it was in a unilateral rise. It remained high in September to November, and in December, it was sharply adjusted.
The first stage was the first eight months of 2022. The polysilicon market has a large unilateral ride, with a period of 67.8%. At the beginning of 2022, the polysilicon market was booming all the way after the average price of 176,000 yuan (ton price, the same below). By the end of August, the average price had been touched to 295,300 yuan, and individual manufacturers quoted exceeding 300,000 yuan. During this period, the overall performance of the photovoltaic industry chain was strong, and the operating rate of the main downstream silicon silicon industry in the main downstream silicon continued to increase, and the profit of the terminal market was considerable. At the same time, due to the high price of imported silicon materials, the new production capacity of the superimposed supply surface is not as good as expected. Individual manufacturers are maintained in separate maintenance, and the supply of polycrystalline silicon is not allowed to continue to rise.
The second stage was from September to November 2022. During the period, the polysilicon market was high -level stability, and the average price was maintained at about 295,000 yuan, and the cycle fell slightly by 0.11%. In September, the production of polysilicon manufacturers was active, the operating rate increased significantly, and the maintenance enterprises resumed operations one after another, the supply increased significantly, and suppressed the market. However, the fundamentals of polycrystalline silicon supply and demand still maintain a tight balance, and the price is still strong, and it remains high.
The third stage was in December 2022. The polysilicon market quickly recovered from a high level of 295,000 yuan at the beginning of the month, with a monthly decrease of 18.08%. This lowest reduction is mainly due to the high operating rate of the polysilicon industry. The main large manufacturers start the entire line. The supply is still increased compared with November 2022, and the speed of shipment of enterprises has slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream of the winter shows weakness, the price of silicon wafers is lower, and the terminal market has also decreased simultaneously. As of December 30, 2022, the average polysilicon market price corrected to 241,700 yuan, down 18.7% from the year high of 297,300 yuan at the end of September.
Demand driving all the way
Throughout the annual market of polysilicon in 2022, Guangfa Futures Analyst Ji Yuanfei believes that in 2022, due to the strong demand for photovoltaic installations, the polysilicon market has always been in short supply, which has led to surge in prices.
Wang Yanqing, an analyst at CITIC Futures Futures Industrial Products, also holds the same view. He said that the photovoltaic market is the most important terminal consumption field of polysilicon. As the photovoltaic industry fully entered the era of cheap Internet access in 2021, the prosperity cycle opened again.
According to data from the National Energy Administration, in 2021, the number of new photovoltaic installation was 54.88GW, becoming the largest year of the year; in 2022, the domestic photovoltaic industry’s high prosperity continued. The annual installation volume of the year -on -year increase was as high as 105.83%year -on -year, showing a major outbreak of terminal demand.
During this period, affected by an unexpected fire in a silicon material in Xinjiang and the “heavy town” Sichuan experience of Sichuan in the production of silicon materials, the tension of the polysilicon market increased and further promoted the rise in prices.
The inflection point of production capacity is emerging
However, in December 2022, the polysilicon market has “changed style”, and has shifted from Gao Ge’s rapid progress to falling, and even the industry in the industry determined that the “avalanche” of the polysilicon market was endless.
“In the early 2022, the new production capacity of polysilicon was released one after another. At the same time, under high profit -driven, many new players entered the game and expanded old players, and domestic production capacity continued to increase.” Wang Yanqing said that because the new production capacity is mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter, The output has increased significantly, resulting in the inflection point of the polysilicon market.
Since 2021, it is driven by the needs of the terminal optical installation machine, and the domestic polysilicon capacity of polysilicon has begun to accelerate the construction. In 2022, factors such as the improvement of the industry’s prosperity, the strong downstream demand, and the rich production profits were attracted a large amount of capital in the polysilicon industry, and the construction of new projects was successively started, and the production capacity continued to increase.
According to statistics from Baichuan Yingfu, as of November 2022, domestic polycrystalline silicon capacity reached 1.165 million tons, an increase of 60.53%over the beginning of the year. , GCL Shan 100,000 tons/year Granules silicon and Tongwei Insurance Phase II 50,000 tons/year.
In December 2022, a large number of polysilicon new production capacity gradually reached its production. At the same time, the supply of stocks in Xinjiang began to circulate. The supply of polysilicon markets increased significantly, and the situation of tight supply and demand tensions relieved rapidly.
The supply side of polycrystalline silicon increased significantly, but downstream demand declined. Since the completion of some stock preparations in the end of November 2022, the purchase volume has begun to decrease significantly. In addition, the weak demand at the end of the year also caused the photovoltaic industry chain to varying degrees of storage, and the excess of silicon pieces was particularly obvious. Many leading enterprises accumulated a large number of silicon wafers inventory. With the accumulation of inventory, the procurement of raw materials for silicon film companies has also continued to decline, resulting in decline in polysilicon prices. In just one month, it fell 53,300 yuan, which was interrupted for 11 months.
In summary, the polysilicon market in 2022 maintained a 11 -month long cattle market. Although in December, due to the concentrated capacity of new production capacity, the market supply increased, the stack of demand side was fatigue. The increase of 37.31% is the seventh place in the gain list of chemical products.
Post time: Feb-02-2023