Since the beginning of this year, the propylene oxide market has finally got rid of the decline lasting for 3 months and re-entered the upward channel. As of March 1, the market price of propylene oxide was 10,300 yuan (ton price, the same below), with a cumulative increase of 15.15% since this year. The industry believes that, under the support of cost and supply end, the propylene oxide market is easy to rise in the short term; But in the long term, due to the new capacity concentrated cash, the rally is difficult to lasting.
The price rose to a high
After the Spring Festival holiday, the prices of oxylene oxide rose rapidly, and the average price of less than one month rose more than 700 yuan, an increase of 7.83%. At present, it has been touched until the highest level since October last year.
“Recently, oxyxide markets have shown upward trends. Although the price in February has a brief downward, relying on high -priced raw materials support, the downlink channels have narrowed significantly.” Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst Feng Na introduced that the return of the oxylene oxide terminal is required. It has not fully recovered and has limited follow -up, and the downstream market is lowered in a narrow range in the stalemate. According to statistics from business agencies, from mid -January to February 6th, the average price of the oxide market has always shocked from 9150 yuan to 9183 yuan.
In early February, with the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the operators had strong expectations. Under the support of cost, the downstream buying atmosphere rebounded. From February 6th to 10th, the average price of the oxide market rushed from 9,150 yuan to 9633.33 yuan, and the ton price rose about 500 yuan. Entering mid -February, although the terminal demand has followed up, the order has not been delivered the year ago, and the terminal market has obvious conflict with high prices. Fall online to near 9,550 yuan. In late February, multiple devices on the supply side were reduced in production, and the cost support was strong. The methane quotation of the epoxy was raised again. On February 17th to 24th, the average price of oxide patelletide rose by about 300 yuan, an increase of 3.32%.
Short – term is easy to rise but hard to fall
It is widely believed in the industry that the fundamental factor driving this rally in the propylene oxide market is the combined cost and supply side. For the future market, Longzhong Information analyst Chen Xiaohan and other companies believe that in the short term, the supply side of the new capacity to cash the delay and the cost side of the strong support, the market will maintain easy to rise difficult to fall.
Chen Xiaohan pointed out that Tianjin Petrochemical’s 150,000 tons/year propylene oxide production capacity, which was newly added in mid-late January, was temporarily shut down on February 11, which may last until the end of March. At present, a production line of Phase I 400,000-ton/year new device of Satellite Petrochemical is under low load debugging, and the product has not been sold out for the time being. So far, the new device in the market has no volume.
In terms of stock production capacity, Qi Xiangda’s 300,000 tons/year device and Taixingyida 150,000 tons/year device did not restart after the parking at the end of last year. Some factories in the production also had a short -term degradation fluctuation. In summary, the overall capacity utilization rate of the oxide market is about 70%, and the first phase of Zhenhai Refinement and Chemical Phase 285,000 tons/year device plan is planned to park for maintenance. Traders generally wait and see for sale.
On the whole, the recent supply of new epoxy market supply has no new production capacity, and there is a continuous replacement of large -scale maintenance plans. Therefore, the supply side is expected to be relatively strong. The overlapping cost end is stable and strong, and it gives the market to certain support. Therefore, the probability of the oxide market in the short term still shows that it is easy to rise and difficult to decline.
Long -term rise is difficult to last
From the perspective of the medium and long line, since the propylene oxide is still in the painful period of production capacity expansion this year, industry insiders have been judged by the new capacity production plan. In the future, the domestic epoxy market will be difficult to improve, and the price is expected to fluctuate at 8,000 to 11,000 yuan.
“2023 is the third year of the patelletide production capacity digestion. The new production capacity is relatively large, and some new production capacity has no supporting downstream.” Sun Shanshan, an analyst at Jin Lianchuang, believes that these capacity will be in the form of spot or contract. Entering the market directly, the impact on the market is more obvious.
From the current news, in the second and third quarters, there were 400,000 tons/year of Sinochem and Yangnong, 270,000 tons/year in Zhejiang Petrochemical, and 300,000 tons/year -old oxylene device in North Huajin. In addition, Yantai Wanhua 400,000 tons/year, Binhai new material 240,000 tons/year -old oxylene oxyne increased production capacity is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. According to statistics from Jinlianchuang, in 2023, there are about 1.888 million tons/year -old oxylene oxylene patent production capacity plan for production.
Wang Yibo, a researcher at China Research Pwi, believes that with the continuous investment in new production capacity, the risk of competition in the oxide market is increasing, which may lead to poor product price fluctuations and poor industry profitability. However, leading companies will make full use of the advantages of self -sufficiency in basic raw materials to reduce manufacturing costs. At the same time, after the continuous development of leading companies can also effectively prevent market risks.
Therefore, under the impact of a large number of new production capacity, a market competition for cost competition will be launched in the oxide industry. From the perspective of demand, the overall market demand shows a repair trend, but the recovery time is longer. Sun Shanshan predicts that the oxylene oxide market will remain shocking in 2023. If there is no sudden favorable, it is difficult to have a high price or rise and upside market.
Post time: Mar-21-2023