Since this year, with the continuous release of production capacity, acrylite -butadiene -lyerene cluster (ABS) market has been sluggish, and the price is approaching 10,000 yuan (ton price, the same below). Low prices, decline in operating rates, and thin profits have become portrayal of the current market. In the second quarter, the pace of the ABS market capacity release did not stop. The “inner roll” was difficult to alleviate. The price war or continued, and the risk of breaking through thousands of risks increased.
Substantial increase in production capacity
In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic equipment was put into production, and the output of ABS was greatly increased. According to the rough statistics of JinLianchuang, in the first quarter of 2023, China’s cumulative production of ABS reached 1,281,600 tons, an increase of 44,800 tons from the previous quarter and 90,200 tons year-on-year.
The release of production capacity put pressure on the market. Although ABS prices did not fall sharply, the overall market continued to shake down, and the price difference reached about 1000 yuan. At present, the price of model 0215A is 10,400 yuan.
Industry insiders said that the reason why ABS market prices did not “collapse”, an important factor is the production cost of ABS and the high cost of traders holding goods, superimposed Zhejiang Petrochemical, Jihua Jieyang qualified products temporarily limited, making the market price hovering at a low level.
For the second quarter, Zheng Xin and other market players believe that the new devices of Shandong Haijiang 200,000 tons/year, Gaoqiao Petrochemical 225,000 tons/year and Daqing Petrochemical 100,000 tons/year are expected to be put into production. In addition, the load of devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Jihua Jieyang may continue to increase, and the domestic supply of ABS is expected to continue to increase, so the ABS market is expected to show a downward trend of turbulence. Do not rule out low-end expected prices below the full possibility of ten thousand yuan.
Shrinking profit margin
With the release of new production capacity, ABS market prices remain low, no matter in East China market or South China market. In order to seize market share, the war of “internal volume” of ABS has intensified and the profit margin has been shrinking.
Analyst Chu Caiping introduced, from the data of the first quarter, ABS petrochemical enterprises theoretical average profit of 566 yuan, down 685 yuan from the previous quarter, down 2359 yuan year-on-year, profit shrank sharply, some low-end expected enterprises in theory in the loss situation.
In April, ABS raw material styrene rose and fell back, butadiene, acrylonitrile prices rose, making ABS production cost increase, profit decline. Up to now, ABS theoretical average profit is about 192 yuan, close to the cost line.
From the perspective of the market, crude oil prices have room for weakness, and the overall macro is weak. The strong performance of international aromatics is still sustainable, and it has a slight support for the price of ABS raw materials. At present, the downstream inventory is not low, the superposition of stocking is not high, and the spot market is difficult to perform active. Therefore, it is expected that the overall market market is mainly a narrow shock.
Wang Chunming introduced that the short -term price support of another raw material of ABS raw materials, and there is a demand for replenishment in downstream, or it will support the high market high. It is expected that the short -term domestic butadiene market is difficult to find low -priced sources, and the market continues to be high.
“The market price of the acrylite may be possibly possibly of a slightly exploring. The maintenance plan or landing of the Lihua Yi device, and the local supply decreases or promotes the market for a small rebound in the market. There is still lack of sufficient favorableness, and the market’s upward space is very limited. “Wang Chunming believes that in general, the cost is stable, and the ABS market may continue to be dominated by supply and demand. Therefore, the profit situation in the market is difficult to improve.
The demand peak season has passed
Although the demand increased in the first quarter, the continuous release of ABS capacity aggravated the contradiction between supply and demand, resulting in a weak peak season.
In the first quarter, the output of air conditioners and refrigerators in the downstream of ABS increased by 10% ~ 14%, and that of washing machines by 2%. The overall terminal demand increased somewhat. However, this year more new units of ABS were put into production, which dissipated this positive impact.” Wang Chunming explained.
From a macro perspective, international oil prices are high -level shocking, and the cost support of chemicals will not be reduced. Domestic economic supply and demand showed a gradual restoration, but the structural differences have not been completely eliminated, and the recovery of large category consumption on the demand side is still weaker than the supply.
In addition, Gree, Haier, Hisense and other companies in April were less than March; ABS supply was still greater than demand. May and June are the traditional purchase off -season of home appliances plants, and the actual demand is average. Under the premise of demand expectations, the price trend of the ABS market in the later period is still weak.
Post time: May-11-2023