During the Lunar New Year holiday, the domestic liquid chlorine market performance is relatively stable, the price fluctuation is not frequent. The end of the holiday, the liquid chlorine market also bid farewell to the calm during the holiday, ushered in three consecutive rises, the market transaction focus gradually moved up. As of February 3, the mainstream tank truck factory transaction in Shandong region (-300) – (-150) yuan/ton.
Domestic chlorine market quotation review
This week, the domestic liquid alkali market continues to be weak, North China downstream mainstream enterprises purchase prices down to 920 yuan/ton drag down the market mentality, the market buying atmosphere is not enough to reduce the enthusiasm to enter the market, more cautious wait and see. And downstream demand recovery is still limited, the market is more than just need replenishment. Due to the chlor-alkali market inventory is still high, coupled with liquid chlorine prices continue to recover, the market bearish expectations, coupled with the current market no good news boost, so the liquid alkali market continued weak.
Shandong region 32 alkali mainstream factory transaction in 940-1070 yuan/ton, 50 alkali mainstream transaction in 1580-1600 yuan/ton. Jiangsu 32 alkali mainstream transaction price in 960-1150 yuan/ton; Highly alkali mainstream transaction price in 1620-1700 yuan/ton. Next week, without the boost of substantive positive factors, although the downstream enterprises have recovered somewhat compared with the previous period, the overall upward strength is not strong, and the inventory of enterprises in the market is still high. Therefore, the weak liquid alkali market is difficult to change next week, and specific attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand.
demand recovery is slow, the main downstream aluminium oxide has no caustic soda purchase plan, just need to purchase enthusiasm is poor, export orders are rare and other bearish factors under the influence of the market trading atmosphere is relatively light, the actual market transaction price is still significantly lower than the manufacturer’s quotation.
At present, manufacturers in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia offer about 4000 workers/ton, but the actual transaction price in the market is about 3850-3900 yuan/ton; At present, local enterprises offer prices of about 3700 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction price in the market is about 3600 yuan/ton. Shandong enterprises offer prices of caustic soda tablets of about 4400-4500 yuan/ton, the high-end price has been reduced significantly, and the actual transaction price in the local market is about 4450 yuan/ton. Some sources traded below this level.
At present, enterprises in the main producing area have not announced the maintenance plan temporarily, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the recovery of downstream demand is obviously difficult to follow up, and the market price is likely to decline under the condition that traders’ enthusiasm to enter the market and manufacturers’ pre-sale volume is significantly reduced. It is expected that the new single quotation in the main producing area next week will be reduced by 50-100 yuan/ton or so. The actual transaction price of the market will also be reduced to a certain extent.
Main downstream market analysis
Aluminium Oxide: Domestic aluminium oxide prices run smoothly. From the market understanding, the impact of environmental protection, Shandong aluminium oxide enterprises roaster implementation overhaul, short-term production reduced. With the recovery of capacity in the market, aluminium oxide companies began to actively order, but due to low capacity utilization in the early stage, the overall inventory level is low. Recent aluminium oxide new investment and resumption of production enthusiasm beyond expectations, the overall market spot supply has increased. However, the progress of new investment and production resumption of electrolytic aluminum is slow, and even the scale of production reduction is further expanded, leading to a strong short-term market pessimism. In the short term, the overall market cautious wait-and-see sentiment is strong, price stability shock probability is larger, is expected to be stable aluminium oxide prices in the short term.
Epichlorohydrin: This week, domestic epoxylposopropane has fallen. (As of February 9th, the mainstream discussion in Jiangsu’s spot was 8700-8800 yuan/ton, a 3.85%price from February 2). During the week, the upstream raw materials are lingering. Although the cost support is obvious, the main factor affecting the decline in epoxy oxide is the scarce of new orders in the downstream, and the cumulative inventory of the factory has increased. In addition, with the restart of some parking devices and the continuous emergence of low -priced supply, the industry is exacerbated and the market is out of expected to be empty and the delivery enthusiasm has improved. However Low, the overall market is weak, it is difficult to form a favorable support for the formation of oxide propylene, the market is superimposed by multiple negative news, and the price of the week has continued to decline. The current market is in a high -cost and low demand state, and as the price continues to fall, the gross profit space of the two process has shrunk significantly. In particular, the glycerin method epoxyl oxide propylene has hovered near the cost line, and even some enterprises have reached a loss. Under the game of cost and supply and demand, the industry’s mentality is sad, and the overall atmosphere of the market is hard to be optimistic.
Propylene oxide: In this cycle, the domestic propylene oxide market is mainly rising steadily. After a slight profit margin at the end of last week, the downstream is expected to keep a certain amount of just demand this week, and will be followed up one after another. After the inventory digestion and transfer of cyclopropyl, the price of cyclopropyl is rising, and at the same time, the short-term shrinkage of individual devices at the supply end and the price of liquid chlorine drive the cost up. Recently follow up weak. As of Thursday, Shandong CiC negotiated 9500-9600 yuan/ton of spot exchange factory, mainstream negotiated weekly average price 9214.29 yuan/ton, month-on-month +1.74%; East China Negotiation delivered 9700-9900 yuan/ton of spot exchange, mainstream negotiation weekly average price 9471.43 yuan/ton, month-on-month +1.92%. The operation of propylene oxide supply end decreased slightly within the cycle: Zhenhai Phase 2 maintained a slightly lower negative operation, Yida and Qixiang stopped, Shell 80%, Zhenhai Phase 2 increased the negative load, Binhua, Huatai and Sanyue decreased the negative load for a short time, Daze operated with low negative load, Tianjin Petrochemical stable 60%, Satellite petrochemical test: capacity utilization rate within the cycle 72.41%; From the perspective of cost, narrow finishing after the section of propylene, liquid chlorine continued to rise and rebound, cost recovery, cyclopropylene profit and loss edge. Demand feedback after the end of the festival is not as expected, part of the digestion of the early inventory, part of the wait for high prices cautiously.
Future market forecast
Next week, due to the increasing inventory pressure of enterprises in the main producing areas and the continuous decrease of the main downstream purchase price, there is still some room for the domestic liquid alkali market price to fall next week. The downstream demand in the main selling area is still recovering slowly, which will provide limited support for the market price. Next week, the domestic caustic soda market price is still likely to decline, downstream demand is weak traders are less active in entering the market, and the actual transaction price of the market is significantly lower than the manufacturer’s quotation, the main downstream alumina demand can not be released simply rely on non-aluminum downstream and traders operating market is difficult to improve, it is expected that next week the market price will mainly decline; In terms of liquid chlorine, the continuous rise of liquid chlorine price in North China leads to the suspension of goods received by some downstream enterprises. The local liquid chlorine price may show a downward trend at the beginning of next week, and the market will enter subsidies again. However, as the downstream gradually recovers, the liquid chlorine market in North China will first fall and then rise next week, which will have a certain impact on the market in surrounding areas, while the market in other parts of the country is relatively stable.
Post time: Feb-15-2023